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I found one of your notes above right on the money: "Orkut failed because it was just social networking for the sake of social networking. Not targeted at a specific group of people. Nobody who cares! Disease-like replication and then died down. Nothing to do there."
This is the answer to Yahoo! 360. Fantastically engineered MySpace clone, falls down because once you generate all these lists, actual interaction with others is difficult if not impractical.
Which leads to the point that makes a social site successful. People want to interact in someway with other people. If it is not apparent how this interaction happens people will leave. Having tags or other social elements isn't enough.
Stowe Boyd is talking a language I am ready to hear!
Weaved into that presentation is a great review of some of the core 'hard problems' of building applications that work socially.
For more on that particular perspective
See also http://www.danah.org/papers/Supernova2004.html</p>
and
http://www.farnhamresearch.com/papers/researchinsocialcomputing.pdf